### Transforming Scores Into Probability

How to show what subjective scores do and do not tell you about probability of success on the basis of their past performance

How to show what subjective scores do and do not tell you about probability of success on the basis of their past performance

What does it mean that a probability is “correct” and how could you possibly know?

A Probabilistic Approach

Maybe the most interesting proof method

How a causal framework can help you avoid the Monty Hall trap (and going home with a goat)

A simple, yet flexible process to model numerous problems

To determine the position of a particle can be a very challenging task. The obvious way is to look at it and see where it is at that time. However, as one can expect, measuring the position of a particle at every instance of time is very difficult (impossible). (A